The big picture
Sales are climbing again, and our own customers are the fastest extra cash
$28,700 in the week to Saturday 17 October, our best week since the NMN-99 and SPMD-99 launch weeks in mid-September. The ads came back on 8 October.
FABLE marks figures from Claude's overnight review of all our money plans.
Our own customers: the soonest extra cash
This week: emails to customers who already buy from us
12 more months of BROQ for the price of 6, annual renewals with an extra $100 off, and 12 more months for $512 for later annual plans.
Plus a $250 gift card for $200, pay for 12 months and get 14 of SPMD-99 or NMN-99, and smaller emails.
Also a new offer, not decided yet: an extra $150 off a new 12-month BROQ plan for 75 customers whose prepaid plan ran out.
Expected in the bank from the email offers, not money in hand, after card fees (Claude's email session's estimate, from past email sales).
About $5,700 of it is orders placed this week.
Likely ranges, every email at its low or high end:
$5,800 to $25,400 by Tue 3 Nov, $6,200 to $26,600 by Tue 17 Nov, $7,100 to $29,400 by Thu 31 Dec. See the emails ›
Keeping the subscribers we have FABLE
33 website subscribers paused in the two weeks to 16 October, nearly twice summer's pace, and about 1 in 5 monthly subscribers leave each month.
The fix: follow up when a card fails, and offer anyone about to cancel a skipped month or a free SPMD-99.
TikTok: growing it ties up about $2,600 of cash in the next 2 weeks and $8,800 in 4, then earns about $27,000 more profit by 31 December FABLE
Growth costs cash first, then pays it back
TikTok and Amazon pay us about 2 weeks after each sale, so growth ties up cash for a while:
By 31 December growth has earned about $27,000 more profit, but about $34,000 of payments are still on their way from TikTok and Amazon.
Those payments land in January, though January's new sales tie up cash the same way. The most tied up at once: about $14,000, on Friday 11 December.
After that, about $46,000 more profit, January to about May, from new subscribers' monthly orders.
What the $27,000 assumes:
- TikTok ad spend grows from about $340 a day on Sunday 18 October to about $900 by mid-November and $1,500 by Monday 14 December.
The forecast stops there, but spend can keep rising while the ads pay. - People who see our TikTok videos also buy on Amazon and our website (Claude's estimate from 66 weeks of our sales, not a test).
To be safe, these figures count only half of those sales. - From 14 to 16 October, each $1 of TikTok ads earned back $1.36 ($1.00 is break-even: the first order's profit pays for the ad), counting half the extra sales.
- On TikTok Shop's own sales alone it earned back 79 cents. Claude's TikTok committee expects that to reach about 95 cents by Saturday 28 November (our least certain figure).
- Then about 10% less earned back per $1 each time spend doubles, with 3 to 10 fresh videos a day.
What got us here: three reasons, biggest first FABLE
Sales each month, all channels, and what we spent on ads
- We cut the ads way back. Ad spend fell from $57,000 in December 2025 to $6,000 a month or less, April to September.
- Customers prepaid early. About $249,000 of 12 and 24-month plans since October 2025 ($80,000 in June's founding sale), so no monthly payments until they renew.
- Monthly subscribers leaving. About 1 in 5 a month, with fewer joining while the ads were off.
What we might not be seeing FABLE
- Last time, ads grew sales, not profit.
From July 2025 to March 2026, sales ran 47% above the no-ad months before, but profit after ads fell from about $10,600 a week to $7,300.
Budgets now grow only while ads pay.